INDEX UPDATE
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Previously, I had called for a CLASS 1 SELL on the both the DOW and NAZ, to be initiated at the highs on Friday.
Most think that when these CLASS BUYS or SELLS are called that it should happpen immediately, but actually the downturn should take place the following day or late afternoon of the buy-in day. The drop in the NAZ was actually early, and if the DOW pulls back on Monday, that would be right on time.
Previously, I had called the top at DOW-8888 and SPX-1000 and we are already there, although faster than I had thought.
The divergence between the DOW and NAZ has never been this large within the last 2 years. Will this type of divergence continue or will the NAZ pull the DOW down, or will the DOW pull the NAZ up, or will the DOW a NAZ just close in to narrow the gap. Its anyone's guess.
One thing that I have noticed is that the NAZ is starting to act more normal to my short-term TA, than the DOW.
I had indicated previously that the NDX may be the KEY, since it is forming a HEAD & SOULDER chart, as long as it does not break the 1180 line to the upside substantially. On Thur it hit 1190, but friday came right back down to 1176; therefore I am concluding that the the H&S formation is still intact. The RIGHT SHOULDER is basicly completed and if the NAZ follows through with the pattern, the next step is a substantial down, with the next strong supports at 1130/1100/1060. The previous week, the NDX closed at 1169 (MAR 13) and yesterday, it closed also at 1169, so for the week the NDX was flat, even though the DOW/SPX made substantial gains. The NASDAQ COMPOSITE only did slightly better than the NDX.
Technically this should be weakness this coming week for the overall market. We did not get a down period in the DOW/SPX last week as I had previously thought, but we did in the NASDAQ.
Per my short-term technicals here are the technical posistions of some of the indexes:
DRG - APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT WITH VERY SLIGHT BIAS TO UPSIDE
DOW - CLASS 1 SELL
SPX - CLASS 1 SELL
BKX - CLASS 1 SELL
NAZ - UPPER MID-RANGE WITH BIAS TO DOWNSIDE
NDX - UPPER MID-RANGE WITH BIAS TO DOWNSIDE
IIX - UPPER MID-RANGE WITH BIAS TO DOWNSIDE
XCI - UPPER MID-RANGE WITH BIAS TO DOWNSIDE
RUT - RECEIVED REVERSAL SIGNAL ON FRIDAY
FPP - MID-RANGE WITH BIAS TO UPSIDE
CWX - MID-RANGE WITH NO CLEAR BIAS
XAL - APPROACHING OVERSOLD WITH ONLY SLIGHT BIAS TO DOWNSIDE
RLX - APPROACHING OVERSOLD WITH ONLY SLIGHT BIAS TO DOWNSIDE
Surprisingly the XAL and RLX are getting close to being BUYS. Under normal conditions there should be 1-2 more down days for them, but who knows.
Seeya
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