Apple Inc. Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.

AAPL 278.79

-0.7%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: rhet0ric who wrote (9830)	3/21/1998 10:59:00 AM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Read Replies (1) of 213173

Your are right about nothing for sure regarding Q2 results. We are here just for educated calculation and believe Eric's estimates are reasonable on every aspect. Everybody investing in stock is betting on its probability of future prospects. I think nobody here is absolutely right or wrong. If his calculation on Q2 is better than anticipated (consensus), then he will add chips onto the table, otherwise he will take them off the table. It is like a porker game, when to add more or pull out will be depending on his own judgement at the current juncture. Not only are stocks betting on its probability, but also most the scientific/engineering developments are dependent on probability analysis. It could range from stochastic modeling or communication signals, etc. When the probability of Q2 results greater than expectations is bigger than certain amount (say 0.80), then we'll assume it is within an investing window; otherwise, we'll hold or sell the positions. Besides revenue/net income, there are too many parameters that will impact the stock price. Therefore, nobody could accurately predict its future trend with 100% confidence. Phil

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