Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Don Earl who wrote (21310)	3/21/1998 11:53:00 AM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (3) of 42771

Some TA stuff. cardinaltrading.com The link gives some fairly simple to understand explanations on reading charts and different indicators. I'm getting very strong mixed signals at this point and am kind of curious if anyone else that plays with TA has any opinions to offer. After spending who knows how many hours in the last two days reading charts, this is what I come up with. 1. Pennant pattern: pull down the SI chart, click to change to weekly numbers. The pennant was sticking out like a sore thumb up until yesterday. The move below 10.19 (first short term support level) messed up the shape but it's still kind of there. Bullish. 2. Support: 10 held but the selling pressure was fairly heavy all day. Couldn't quite figure out the large bid/ask sizes that didn't change for long periods in spite of a large numbers of trades that should have reduced inventory. Down on increasing volume is bearish. There is support again at 9.94 but I would consider that to be kind of weak if 10 breaks. 3. Descending triangle: Pull down the 100 day SI chart. The move to 10 makes a fairly strong argument for that interpretation. Bearish. 4. Topping pattern: (not discussed in the posted link) In a daily chart the volume forms a U shape and the price lows start to form an upside down U shape (on bottoms price and volume both form U shapes). The completed pattern leaves an O shape in the middle of the price and volume (on tops). This is one of my favorites as confirmation starts in the middle of the pattern, well ahead of major price moves. Normally a strong pattern and very bearish. Volume picking up on the downside yesterday would tend to be early confirmation but not rock solid. 5. Moving averages: The 12 day is starting to turn down sharply but longer term MAs are still trending up. Two ways to look at it: a) If it's going through a consolidation period the short term MA doesn't make much difference. b) The move from 7 to 11 was too fast and the longer term MAs aren't valid. 6. Stochastics: Still trending down (bearish) but starting to reach an over sold condition (bullish, almost). My conclusion at this point is that the price is on the verge of a full blown break out. The problem is I don't have a clue which direction. Any amateur and/or professional TA players care to take a look at the tea leafs and offer an opinion?

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