Jeff-When do Motley "fools" announce their IFO-I mean IPO.
They're making a "killing" (probably more than yahoo!)on all the ad revenue IOMG must be paying them for their "hype."
Here are my thoughts on a possible scenario developing.
Comdex is Nov 17-21. IOM announces NYSE listing at the show.
(I was at the SIGGRAPH show in LA the week that Netscape went public.) The place was abuzz with electricity-even I had goosebumps-Recall how the stock made history that week. Front page of WSJ. IOMG's running huge ads several times a week. So, you know they will get a nice "spin" from the Journal. The insiders on NSCP IPO made millions-and there were no revenues. Would be the optimum time to announce. All the press coverage at Comdex, etc...Maybe good for a 5 point or more bump that week. NYSE-so more like $5 a week-not $5 per day.
As I have studied Mr. KE-a master salesman-he would not miss this opportunity-unless he has something even more exciting up his sleeve for the show. In that case, move up the time frame 1 week. Let's say around Nov. 11. But why would KE announce a new product at this time and kill all the sales in the channel? People would wait for the new zipzap. Wouldn't make sense. MSFT held off on NT 4,0 to not hurt Win95. So, the "big announcement" has to be the NYSE and maybe a new partner signing.
4Q Revenues could be $700 mil-Lot's of publicity and advertising, along with shelf space at retail, holiday buying, IOMEGANS evangelizing, etc. (Also lot's of rebates that new investors won't be aware of or concerned with-and most IOMEGANS are too naive to see the Ponzi that's coming down the pike.) They will continue to hold during the meltdown.
Then, after the show and through the holidays-all kinds of positive announcements. 6th million shipped, etc, The stock has a nice steady climb-maybe $40-$45 because IOMG is everywhere. After 4Q announcement-the "rebate" problems hit the fan. Earnings get crushed. Everyone's excessively high "earnings" expectations get shattered. Panic sets in. The stock dives the next day, and continues to slide for the next few months as all the negative press starts to snowball. (Sound familiar?)
At the bottom (single digits?)all the shares are bought up by the MM's-people think IOM is washed up. The press labels IOM, the I Owe Money company. Everyone bails out-even the diehards. And then-IOM announces a new breakthrough storage technology with the "dream team," And we're right back here to the present situation.
Possible negative wildcards that could hurt:
Democratic Congress elected-Prop 211 passes(although this could actually be a plus because IOMG is not in CA-Russian Civil War-Israel-Interest Rates-Bad holiday sales-Clinton Impeachment talk.
This is my gut and I will focus on this scenario for my strategy keeping an eye on the wildcards. I no longer care about the rebates and won't mention them again-until 4Q when I'm short.
What are your thoughts on this scenario?
As a side note-I did much better than expected today on my DEC and MCAF shorts. So I took a small short in NSCP before the bell. It was a coin toss. I thought they would do $0.10 instead of $0.09. With the bears coming out-I figured it could still take a hit over the next 2 weeks.
I will make my buy IOMG buy soon. What do the charts tell you?
Now that I'm beginning to see the long short-term picture clearer- I will now become a Motley Fool Evangelist. They have recruited a following of "new" investor fools which have made players in IOMG stock billions. And,"Real Audio?" These guys are brilliant. I wonder how many ticks-I mean hits there site gets? |
