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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 234.19

-2.2%

Dec 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: ComSolut who wrote (30998)	3/22/1998 10:20:00 AM
From: Chas	Read Replies (1) of 53903

"Since then, however, an oversupply in 16-megabit DRAMs has accelerated the price decrease in 16-megabit chips, postponing the crossover. Dataquest now expects the crossover to come in 1999. Do you feel the above statement is accurate? Yes or No" NO to the crossover statement in 99. It is true the 16M price drop has postponed the crossover in the 4th qtr, I believe the large suppliers have already started dropping 16M output and ramping 64M. You also see Micron has realized this and have accelerated their conversion to 64M now with 50% in 64M wafer starts. OEM pricing is very aggressively moving towards crossover and is not but a couple of months away barring any further 16M drops. The 16M price could drop further but with Micron and other majors dropping output, that maybe enough to stabilize the price and thus allowing 64M to get down to 4x or crossover. Micron will have an extremely tough time making any money in this market.

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