Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (5317)	3/22/1998 1:13:00 PM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (2) of 18691

Ben Zack's expects market turn down before end of March: My bet is a significant sell off will finally materialize before the end of March. While the list of negative pre-announcements so far has been focused in the computer and telecom areas, but certainly not limited to those areas, it will likely broaden, based on the number of companies having first quarter estimates cut by analysts. During the last 30 days, 633 companies in the Zacks Universe have had their first quarter consensus earnings estimate cut by more than 1% while 195 companies have had their first quarter estimate increased by more than 1%. Companies having estimate cuts are more likely to pre-announce earnings and will not meet expectations. I expect the capital spending arena to experience severe earnings difficulties as the effects of the Asian economic crisis, the strength of the U.S. dollar and the final inning of the U.S. economic expansion combine to take a toll on capital spending. Apparently somebody believes this market can still be rational! Kip tfc.com

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