Good to hear from you, Bill...WTT2...do you work for WTT?
We seem to be getting more traffic here lately. Thanks Richard Lee for noticing the IFM pick which is up 126% since I put it in the portfolio on Jan. 27. (His comment showed up on the new thread, The Roaring 20, at siliconinvestor.com
Regarding your question Bill...a few days ago I thought I should go against my vow not to tinker with this portfolio. If it were me I would sell Excite and take a profit for example. Problem with that thinking is where do you sell. If you go on that logic I would have sold more than a little too soon. It's a toughie. In any case I do believe I will have a housecleaning of this portfolio on July 1, a year is just too long to wait. Any suggestions will be welcomed. We might even want to keep some in cash depending on conditions.
To me the market is in a euphoric state, warranting extreme caution...I personally think many of the valuations are madness.
Even so, I think you can look at some of the companies in this basket and see long-term growth.
Since they have done so well this year, all of the internet stocks are probably short-term overvalued. Some of them however may be long term huge winners so you risk a lot in selling them if they are good stocks.
I guess I would agree that some of these stories will be timed differently. ACTC is a growth through acquisitions story and it seems to be finding a lot of bumps in the road...but when things are consolidated maybe then it will look good.
MRVC and YURI have not done very well and if they had another bad year I would be inclined to give up on them.
On internet commerce, IFM must have news coming, I suspect some banks are buying a piece of the company (vertical marketing and all)...just a hunch. So who knows if it is ahead of itself or not.
IVIAF and CKFR have not gone anywhere but have a lot of growth ahead of them, so they seem safe bets from here. CKFR is the better company of the two...my in-depth analysis says it is better because it is bigger.
HUMCF and INSO were bought for value and I would consider them very safe bets. INSO has gone up a bit and could come back down but the 5 year picture is extremely bright.
SCTR is a sell for me. It has gained a lot and I would take profits. It's a hardware company and its growth in its niche isn't infinite.
SFAM is a great value play. Just check out the balance sheet.
TLDCF is caught up in the strange world (for me) of the Israeli business community with takeover rumours, odd press reports, etc. I would sell it on a bounce due to the uncertainty. Takeover value could be as much as $23-28 but no one seems sure. Also it might be more of a merger...or simply another company buying 10%. ?????
AWRD was a value play and certainly should be sold if it reaches a target, say $20. Although it also has growth potential, it was mostly a valuation thing. I would say the same for all of the value plays, sell them if their value is realized and move on. Not so for long term super growth companies in new fields...if you understand the long term picture here buy and hold is the watchword...as long as the story stays intact. Speaking of that, anyone heard of Mills Stores (MLS)? Not a tech play but I wouldn't mind owning a portfolio of brand new malls with new ones opening every year. There aren't many ways you can participate in the ownership of malls...and these are shiny new 'destination' malls. Stock trades in a narrow range, I'd like to see it come down a bit.
AMLJ is one of those stocks which is rather small and odd so unless you follow it closely it's hard to get a read on it, and should definitely be avoided by the small investor. I haven't looked at it lately. Seems like they get big contracts sporadically...which is OK, CPCI is like that too...not a steady smooth revenue picture...same for a lot of the networking companies...but I just don't know the "story" of AMLJ and why they should continue to get contracts. Stock price as you say shows little confidence in them.
On the whole, the portfolio is up 31.75% so far, well ahead of the indices. |
