Frank,
Wow, quite a long dissertation. Not sure the Y2K "problem" warranted such a lengthy response, but I appreciate your view. I too agree that Y2K has been blown way out of proportion. It seems that Y2K, along with Asia, is an easy crutch for a number of high tech firms as they attempt to explain their missing expectations. This is why I simply made an off-hand mention of the issue and did not belabor it. I'd like to point out a couple of things however which may or may not be of interest to you:
First, there's no doubt that financial institutions are going through a significant infrastructure churn. Much of the technology being used by these organizations is old - much of it TDM technology <gasp!>. So, this sector is clearly due for an upgrade. Couple this with their exquisite profitability of late and some consolidation and you have fertile ground for infrastructure expenditures - regardless of any Y2K problem.
If you look at carriers - they simply can't churn their entire network.
If you look at ISP's, I know you told me not to bring this up, but these networks are new...they can't churn them - not that they can afford it.
If you look at small business, many have not fully amoritized their current environments and therefore are looking to "fix" the issue rather than replace equipment.
Internationally, there is churn in some area's, but I don't think it's nearly as pronounced as you're seeing the financial sector. There's no doubt that this sector is spending money on infrastructure.
Many older established large enterprises (like financials) such as manufacturing, and large retail operations are also upgrading, regardless of Y2K.
All told the issue of Y2K _may_ be a wash, but the uncertainty it's created has delayed purchases for the past 18 or so months. We may have worked through this uncertainty however make no mistake - it did exist...and continues to be a problem for the service providers and small to medium sized businesses.
Gary |
