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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (3564)	3/22/1998 7:01:00 PM
From: Count de Monie	Read Replies (1) of 78594

Dear Paul Senior, Great reply to the cymer challenge. You have my respect as someone who's knows how to evaluate a company. My strategy of waiting for $15 a share is as follows. Next quarter earnings will disappoint. I have until Fall to buy in before earnings pick up. It reach $15 just a few weeks ago. Asian crisis is not over. The Dow is too high. First quarter earnings will be bad for semi (INTC, MOT,Compaq). My point is the probability of getting in at a lesser price later is pretty good. The difference between $15 and $20 is 25 percent, quite significant. If things don't work out I can put my money in other stocks. My strategy has worked for 3 years so far. I play the probability game. You don't think timing can be done? I say never put your money in unless your sure. If in 4 months I can't buy Cymer for $15-$16 I will admit on this thread your right about timing. I know one sample is not statistically significant, but I believe I have a better chance of being right than you :) Count de Monie

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