I see your point about PE and NSCP. However, there is a major
difference. NSCP's PE is infinity presently (technically). Same
with UUNT. TLTK's NI per quarter is about 12% (that's what it was
last quarter) so using your analysis...20*.12-.575 (court costs)=
$1.82 million NI for the quarter. That leaves us with $2.88 million
NI for the last 3 quarters. Divided into ~9 million OS, EPS = .32.
IF this is the case then if on the day of the announcement, if the
stock price is $15, the PE will drop from 115 to 46. Keep in mind
that on 1/23 when they announced, PE went from 40 to 20. Personally,
this can be justfied on technical grounds becasue EPS could go from
.06, .07, .20. Quite a nice jump if indeed they pop $20 million Rev's.
It most likely will not goto $15 in five weeks yet over time the PE
each day the quarterly announcement is made will have a higher top
number.
A PE of 46 is not that much considering the growth that they are
having and the growth the 200% more in switches will generate.
It might take time for the PE to rise yet eventually it will, esp.
if the NI comes in above $1.5 million. Keep in mind, the following
quarter will see and additional .06 tucked in because court costs are
out of the way.... .05, .06 (adjusted), .20ish..., then maybe .40ish?
Stay along for the ride...it should be exciting.
The other communication companies such as MCI, Sprint, and AT&T
have PE's around 30 (AT&T's is now weird but that's becaseu of
writeoff). They are NOT growing as fast as TLTK. For this reason,
a PE of 33 is not justified in my opinion.
Look for greater things....People all along have undervalued this
stock. In January you can read comments like "won't hit $10 by
december...or "$25 by the end of the year...no way"...Well
doing a little comaprison shopping and knowing what the company
plans to add to increase revenues...this thing can blow out
of the water....remember that going from $18 to $45 isn;t really
that tough...percentage wise we did that the past 8 weeks...and
no matter how you look at it, going from $2.65 to $12 is much
harder than going from $12 to $45. In fact....keeping OS at
9 million, $45 only puts TLTK at a market value of $405 million.
This is 2% of MCI after major stock growth...puts it in a little
perspective, don't ya think? |
