Joe,
Thanks for the info! Can you summarize what the Daily News said?
The next several days may present an excellent buying opportunity.
I posted the possibility of a 5 wave decline about a month back with a spike up to maybe $15 in the meantime. Well, we've hit $14.5...that's pretty darn close. I think we will fade to $11-12. We have a hit on our hands yet the market does not recognize this...(i.e. Battlezone)...and probably won't until the numbers come in. Until then, it would seem that all interactive game companies are coming under some selling pressure.
I wonder what was in the minds of Kotick and company when they sold their shares shortly after earnings and why is the 4th quarter being beefed up with so many releases. Certainly, Pitfall could be pushed a few days to the new fiscal year, yet ATVI is choosing to release Rise of the Shadowhand, and Pitfall by the end of this month. This has the effect of increasing the performance numbers for ATVI for fiscal 1998...perhaps in an attempt to demonstrate to the game developer community that ATVI has become a major player? or as Alex mentioned... to position the company to be acquired? That, however, leads me to wonder, what is in store for the coming year? Sin, Vigilante, Apocalypse, Hexen II Portal of Praevus, The next Zork...I would imagine Heavy Gear II, etc., etc....I'm betting that the slate for 1999 will be very nice indeed, if I'm reading ATVI management correctly.
If ATVI falls to $12 or below, I will be liquidating other stocks and moving major assets to this stock. ATVI is quickly becoming a powerhouse. The conditions are ripe to make a lot of money here. A great distribution arm, a ripe market boosted by the advent of the sub $1000 computers and cheap consoles, a building of quality games for consoles, strong name-brand PC titles, etc.
I'm not upset about losing Auran. This isn't crying over spilt milk or some strange rationalization either. I've thought this for a long time. Dark Reign, though with better AI than TA, was not as good as TA, as the market has shown. The interactive 3D terrain was not as impressive as TA, unit devlopment not nearly as robust as TA, etc. What I thank Auran for is that it got ATVI into the game of real-time strategy (e.g. Battlezone uses some of the same AI as Dark Reign) There are so many developers out there with cutting edge games, ATVI has the money, the distribution capabilities, and the clout to sign on many of these.
I am looking forward to a buying opportunity.
Tom C. |
