Can someone confirm: 1/2001 INTC LEAPs available on 5/18/98?
I'm hoping to buy a bunch of the 100s or 120s, as soon as they become available, as long as the stock price is still below 85, which looks likely at this point. Over the last 15 years, buying INTC when it is out of favor, and the price has been flat or down for a year, and then holding for at least 3 years, has always been an excellent investment. With 32 months till expiration, I will have time to wait out this downturn, with a wide margin for error in case it doesn't happen as soon as I think it will. The problem with options is that you have to guess the right stock, the right time to buy, the right time to sell, and do it in a pre-determined time frame. Do any one of those things wrong, and you lose your entire investment. My strategy is more forgiving of errors. I'm sure INTC is the right stock, and I'm sure that now is the time to buy. But I'm not at all sure of how long the downturn will last. I'm guessing a 5% probability my 120s will become in-the-money by 9/98, 10% in the last quarter of 1998, 60% during 1999, 25% in 2000, and a zero chance of not hitting 120 before Jan. 2001. That "zero chance" is why I'm going to buy those LEAPs. Even with a recession, the Japanese stagnation spreading to the rest of East Asia (and persisting for years), and no new "killer apps" driving semiconductor demand, I still can't see any scenario where 120 LEAPs will not be well in the money by expiration. |
