Ascend Communications (ASND) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 210.40

-1.0%

11:53 AM EST

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To: Eric E who wrote (40478)	3/22/1998 11:52:00 PM
From: Dennis R. Duke	Read Replies (1) of 61433

I have said before that I believe that ASND will go it alone. They are building internal systems for up to $5 billion in sales (4x plus current size), and are planning to complete these systems by end of Q4 this year. Why would they build systems, only to be blended into the acquiror systems? That detail makes me think that they are planning to go it alone. Further, I think by the time LU can act, in October, that ASND stock price will have reacted to the new ATM switches. Michael indicated at the Montgomery conference that the LU bid might not be coming back because the company will have moved too far before they could act. He did not say that outright, but posed it more as a question of when they could act and where would I guess ASND to be by then. I felt stronger about that before LU's recent run up in price. So the currencies of stock maybe on par by then. Who knows. We can hardly get through a week with this stock with a good strong guess on where it going to be. Little loan guessing when or who, if anyone, is going to buy ASND out right. So I am less interested in those rumors than the fundamentals of ASND, and can it support growth without others. My conclusion is it can. Separately, I would like to put forward a guess as to what we saw last week. In February the option expiration did not go as the option players would have liked. The close was at $35 and enough change that the $35's as I recall were in play. Could it be then that those options players were not going to get burned twice and started in early on ASND. Pressuring the price all week with whatever tricks they could play. I would assume those tricks included shorting the stock. That being the case I am looking to see if we have a short covering rally on Monday while these positions unwind from the option players pressuring ASND. An early pop of a couple of points would look like shorts covering to me. If we see that it does two things, in my opinion: 1) it would reaffirm that options pressure was what hurt us last week and 2) potentially builds a new higher price base to move forward from. I for one would be happy to see both. But the market will tell us soon enough what is to happen. Dennis

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