Tokyo Joe's Cafe / Anything goes Message Board

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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Tokyo Joe's Cafe / Anything goes

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To: TokyoMex who wrote (1500)	3/22/1998 11:57:00 PM
From: Charles J	Read Replies (1) of 34592

I agree with you on the oil stocks. The oil industry is in a unique situation where 3 negatives hit simultaneously. 1) Two nations Saudi and Venezuela decided to over produce for a quick increase in revenues. 2) Down turn in Asian economies reduced demand. 3) Unseasonably mild winter reduced demand. The market could have probably absorb any one of these occurrences without to much downside, but all three was just to much to handle. As every knows oil went from the low twenties down to the low teens. A three day rally in oil last week may be the sign that the price of oil has bottomed. OPEC has scheduled a meeting for the 30th to discuss the production levels. The results of this meeting will tell the tale. As of Friday Saudi has not responded as attending. All in the oil sector have been hit hard. CDG is down from 82 to 38. DO is down from 67 1/2 to 47 and MIND is down from 33 1/8 to 17 1/8. These stocks rebounded about 10% last week. The interesting thing, is that DO is involved in the deep drilling using submersible rigs. Their projects usually last 3 years which makes them elastic to short term moves in oil prices. However the market still hit them just as hard. It looks like the market is starting to realize that DO is oversold. DO traded 2 1/2 times normal volume Friday and closed up 2 1/16. Analyst are expecting .66 this quarter .77 next and 3.23 for the year with $4.14 next year. MIND leases and sells seismic data acquisition equipment to the oil and gas industry. Unless oil and gas companies cancel contracts which they usually don't do with short term down trends in prices, MIND should maintain its 30% EPS growth. Analyst are expecting .31 this quarter .37 next and 1.11 for the year with $1.58 next year. That puts MIND roughly at a PE of 15 for this year and 11 based on next years earnings. MIND's quarterly is due out after close of business on the 25th. If the quarterly is good, they should move up to the low 20's which will be a nice 25%-30% gain. Watch for quarterly on Tuesday. CDG is more directly effected with the fluctuations in oil prices however they met expectations with .88 last quarter ending December 31. CDG has only 15.9 million outstanding and analyst are expecting .93 this quarter 1.02 next and 4.52 for the year with $5.78 next year. Being down over 50% from a high of 82 this year, at 38 it seems the market has already priced in a decline in earnings. If they meet earnings this quarter and OPEC agrees on controlling production CDG should rebound nicely. Its funny, when I was driving in the 70s I never thought I'd be looking forward to an increase in oil prices. Good luck to all.

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