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Gold/Mining/Energy : Epic EAS.v (formerly Epic ERB.v and Safari SIR.v)
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To: Geoff who wrote (1691)3/23/1998 12:38:00 AM
From: CLK  Read Replies (1) of 3335
 
Let us take the mathematically easiest proposition and one that I would feel is not unreasonable which is that the 15 million shares out after the merger controls 1.5 tcf of producible gas (after a jv) which, at a dollar an mcf, is 1.5 billion dollars worth. Divide 1.5 billion by 1.5 million and you get 100 dollars a share. Now if it is half that good we get 50 dollars a share and if it is twice that good it is 200 dollars a share. We call that these the uncertainly bands. That gives us a range of 50 - 200 dollars a share, but then the Turkey play could be of equal size so we could expand the range from 50(Turkey a bust) to 400 dollars a share(Turkey spectacular and Washington spectacular). This game can be played ad infinitum and it is a lot of fun but right now the price is around a dollar so at this point we just have to keep our fingers crossed and let things unfold. The upside, however, could be mind boggling. Remember that with this kind of upside if you have only 10% of our low estimate you still have 5 dollars a share. Perhaps the range we should end the analysis with is 5 dollars to 200 dollars a shares..everyone should feel happy except those who think it will still be worth shell price when all is said and done. Seem like there are less and less in that camp these days. Anything is possible. So all fingers crossed that this field resembles the Black Warrior or San Juan Basin in size. If that turns out to be the case all will be very happy campers. Thank you for explaining the technical analysis terms. P.S. If I have made mistakes in this series of speculative calculations, anyone who wants to should feel free to correct them.
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