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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (16163)3/23/1998 3:56:00 PM
From: RGinPG  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
The daily stochastics trading system designed to give me early sell signals in a down or flat trend will give me a lot of sell signals after today's action. I'm not selling. Here's why:

1) This system is meant strictly for a flat or downward trend, we are in a well established uptrend now with three episodes of higher lows, and now a run at a third higher high.

2) This sell system comes only 2 short days after the last buy signal. In the past when this has happened, the OSX continued strongly upward (sometimes with a short flat trend preceding the new rally).

3) This upward move is powerful enough to change the sentiment and make people forget about the previous pain in this sector.

I'm definitely waiting for the later sell signals (when stochastics begin to turn down, or rises above 80% and then falls below 80%) before I sell anything. Even then, I may only get rid of my margin, because we've had 6 mths of a correction and then bottoming, it's time for the real thing. If I sell, Paul Levy's portfolio will definitely beat mine. It would be a shame to trade short term, pick up 5% here, 10% there and miss out on a 50% run.

The stochs on the OSX will probably get above 80 after tomorrow's close.
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