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Technology Stocks : ACLY- ACCELR8. Year 2000 Stock
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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote ()3/23/1998 5:58:00 PM
From: ThirdEye  Read Replies (3) of 1518
 
CR: "ACLY says only 5% of FORTRAN programs contain date logic." This appears to agree
with my assertion that only a small percentage of FORTRAN programs require fixing the date! (I think
5% is too high). Using the DEC numbers 90B LOC X 5% = 4.5B LOC need to be analyzed. If ACLY
captured the ENTIRE market, at $0.03 per LOC ... this gives $135M in lifetime Y2K revenue and
$80M in profits after taxes (no costs<g>) ... a valuation of about $10 per share for ACLY.""

Bill, you seem to be confusing DEC COBOL and DEC FORTRAN. The DEC COBOL market is estimated to be 90BB LOC. ACLY is charging customers who use DEC factories .03-.05/LOC. IF DEC customers need direct consulting services, they pay .15/LOC. (or was it .30? I can't recall.)

Now, you are saying only 5% of DEC FORTRAN programs have date references. Therefore only 5% of all DEC FORTRAN code will be ACLY's market. I understand something different. All of FORTRAN code may only contain 5% date references. But all of the code still needs to be scanned to find them. If you knew which 5% to scan, of course the potential revenue would be miniscule compared to what you think ACLY is claiming.

Run it again.

Edit: Now that I have read the intervening posts, I know I'm just repeating what Jeff said.

Yeah, that's the ticket. What Jeff said.
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