Vinman,
Sorry, I didn't realize you actually disagreed with Craig.
So your even more negative on COMS that I realized.
Whew! I'm not saying your wrong about thinking COMS will
have a big blowout - but how can anybody tell?
To me it's a gamble to go short at this point. A lot
of negative news has been priced in. Sure earnings could
be worse than expected, but at .14c they've set the bar
pretty low already (IMO).
Okay, so you're saying the disk drives inventories were
worse than expected. I don't follow the disk drives much,
but how much connection is there between the disk drive
problems and the modem problems?
<From my perspective if you are currently long, you lack perception with regards to the current state of the business>
I'm trying to be realistic. I think hi-tech is presently
in a mini-recession. Hopefully not for long.
I put my money on COMS for long term because I think they'll
get their chance in the sun in 6-12 months. I could place
a short bet now because I think tech is pretty negative right
now, but I think it's already been priced into the market,
making it riskier. I'm satisfied to just hold and
wait and see, with a stock that I feel will go up when
the dust clears (probably a while).
I think the current price is good at the moment for a long.
Doesn't mean that there isn't risk. But, if it drops
in the 20's, and stays there for a while, so I can get
a chance to buy - wow!, pricing in present value of long term profits (and totally ignoring the short term
outlook), it would be a very good deal (IMO).
Question: At what price will you go short on COMS?
Joe
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