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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Eric Hall who wrote (4232)10/23/1996 2:44:00 PM
From: David A. Lethe   of 42771
 
Eric, good points.. let me respond to your questions.

1. For the nth time, I am not a proponent of NT over NW, or NT on RISC. I am trying to add the proper balance to inaccurate (or incomplete) postings by people that fail to grasp that NT is ported to non-intel architectures, and the netware NOS ISnt.

>David, RISC is just a check-off item, and that's it. There are not enough people buying NT-on-anything-other-than-Intel to make any money... You lost!

I NEVER said it was a big revenue factor. It is a factor, however. Novell's primary competetive product (NT server) CAN compete in the Alpha/RS6K arena (in a small scale). Novell can't. There is still value here. They have a degree of INVESTMENT PROTECTION if they select NT on RISC, that they don't get with NT on Intel.

2. I agree you need to be patient with this stock. When I came to the thread around April, I told people why they should get out of NOVL (as I just did). I told them why. Those that researched my reasoning and frequent postings preserved some equity. People who blindly held the stock becaused they "believed" in the company saw their investment drop 60+%.

I assure you, I got my share of messages thanking me for sharing information about the industry, NOVLs product marketing strategy, and information that only people in the industry have.

3. > Hell, Novell's still in strong shape and they're below $11! This is whacked... * somebody once said that owning this stock was more painful than hitting themselve in the head with a ballpeen hammer. It's apparent that some others hear are beginning to "feel" the analogy. I still have faith, though. The bad quarters are behind us.

If NOVL continues to rely heavily on Netware, then they have no future. The NOS model is being replaced by client/server, mini/mainframe hosts, and network computers. This is why revenue is down. Computing environments just don't NEED Netware (or NT server) the way they did in the past.

>So, David, when the turnaround does finally make it, will you be hear saying "I told you not to buy; I apologize."? Or are you kicking us while so many are down?

WHEN(if) the turnaround happens. I WILL buy. Not until then. I have no desire to have my money tied up in a stock that is not increasing in value. It is very simple. You buy when the stock is on an uptrend, sell on a downtrend. If the stock is stagnant, get out and put your money elsewhere.

By your own admission, the company is not doing the right things to increase shareholder value. I know why I am not a shareholder. Ask yourself WHY are you one?
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