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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options
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To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (37197)3/23/1998 9:25:00 PM
From: joe smith  Read Replies (2) of 58727
 
patrick,

i would love it if the market took another dive. if the dow could weaken the nas, nas100 and sox could start to find reasonable valuations. they are signicicantly above that, especially the ndx. i have been hoping/begging/wishng/wanting ( i refuse to pray) for a correction. its just that the dow is like the energizer bunny. it just keeps on going. i dont know how many times i was optimistic after a signicicant interday pullback only to see it erased by a late afternoon rally. therefore i have a more positive bias to my thoughts about the short term. its a lot less frustrating that way.

i have been roughtly 50% short,40% long and 10% cash for the last two months. amazingly enough i have made a little money during this period. i've had some run pretty far the wrong way, but even those are coming back now. the nice thing about this mixture is i can close out trades on good and bad days. it makes the market a lot more exciting.

i have felt the market is very overvalued for some time. i doubt it will happen, but i think the dow could see a pullback to 5600-6100 in the next twelve months. i would love to see a 10% circuit breaker early in the correction. i think the dow will have a negative year for the first time in a while.

for too many years i have been 100% long and bullish and have suffered some nasty times (oct thru feb 98 comes to mind). its a whole lot more fun pulling for a pullback.

ps we had 6 straight up days in feb

good luck and may your longs get longer and your shorts shorter

js
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