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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: HH who wrote (16216)3/23/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Heyward, No No No!!!!

I think Paul's vocal objection to TA is an academic cop-out.(Excuse me Paul but you have been vocal) Paul's objection has been the statistical non-correlation. Definitely a strong argument but it is similar to the statistical non-correlation of tobacco and cancer.

First, my objection (although quite vocal) is not an academic cop-out. It is based on the fact that there is not a single unbiased study showing that TA works. And your reference to the "non-correlation" between tobacco and cancer is ludicrous because that 180 degrees off target. The correlation was first demonstrated by epidemiologists who are medical statisticians and later confirmed by direct experiment. The studies 'demonstrating' the non-correlation were bought and paid for by the tobacco companies and are similar to the statistic put forward by the pump and dump sheets. I am vocal on this because it seems insane to me to use a system for which there is no evidence.

So I asked, and continue to ask, is there any real evidence (not anecdotal) that this stuff works. I believe that the real money to be made in TA is by writing books and touting the system. I also believe that the believers out there are being had, and that saddens me. The analogy that immediately springs to mind is one of sick people going to quacks.

So let's look at it this way. Of all the TA'ers out there in oil and gas land Ron was the only one that was consistently bullish over the past few weeks. Others gave a half-hearted maybe yes maybe no reads on the market. On the other hand, all of the people who follow fundamentals were extremely positive about this group, the only negative being voiced by Baird and many others that that the land drillers were much more vulnerable than the others.

Regards,

Paul
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