I don't know who our competition on this is at the present, Richard, so I couldn't hazard a guess on probability. From my knowledge of the players that might be involved, none have the full service capability that the Unitec/Glentel team bring to the customer. I think that is worth something from a logistics standpoint, but it should also make us very competitive commercially.
Last year I announced a similar bid teaming with PT Mega Eltra (an Indonesian Government Company). Of some thirty bidders, only three (including Unitec and partners) have made the final qualification. I leave tomorrow evening for Jakarta for a week of site visits, negotiations and bid preparation.
From a numbers standpoint, our chances would be 33%. The fact of the matter, however, is that we have a superior technical solution. We have beaten one of the other bidders on several projects already and our technical advantage translates to a financial advantage.
Our game plan at the present is to focus on those projects that we believe we have a better than average chance of winning. Of the over $400 million in RFQs that we have received in the past three months, we will screen out 90% to concentrate on the ones that we feel we have a high probability of winning. Look at the success ratios on the Business Plan, I hope to maintain that ratio of wins. My guess is that we have a better than 50% chance of winning both projects.
Unitec has not worked with Glentel before, but both companies and management are seasoned systems providers who have worked with others in similar arrangements.
We have a local Latin American partner that will handle all the field and civil construction who will be posting the bonds. That part has already been looked after. If we loose this bid, I will tell you if you wish. I hadn't intended to make a formal announcement as it wouldn't be material.
The material part of this announcement is the partnering will undoubtedly lead to other projects between us. Friday, for example, one of the Glentel Engineering managers invited us to make an unsolicited proposal with them in a new area that would capitalize on their satellite technology and our SCADA expertise. What I see as important is the long term potential for commercial cooperation between the two companies.
But I'm still optimistic that our odds are good for this current project.
I agree, with your last comment with the proviso that firmed up sales are "out the door sales". Even the orders in the door cover only 2/3rds of the equation. I know, I live it every day.
I will check the thread tomorrow before I leave, but will be out of contact for a little better than a week. I hope there are a lot of questions for me when I return.
Regards,
John |
