Ok, so assuming that 24 sats are lost (I think its safe to say the odds are that it won't be worse than this) and a production of 4 a month, then that means a 6 month delay to Globalstar's start of service from a production viewpoint.
Adding to that, is a delay due to lack of launch slots. Do you think its safe to say that this delay would be 6 months or less? (Loral does have backup reservations for launches, as I understand it.)
That would mean a total 12 month delay to start of service. Additionally, the book value of the company would be discounted due to the amortization of the sats already in orbit.
This satisfies my concerns about the risk-- If this happened, and G* was delayed 12 or even 18 months, I'm sure the stock would take a big hit in the near term, but 5 or 10 years from now, the value will not be that significantly affected.
Is there a bigger risk to Loral than launch failures? Their production of sats has a good record, their financing is conservative enough, what else is there?
Dragonfly
(Not to discount this risk, I'm simply saying it's acceptable to me. The G* story is good enough that even with the delay, they will be highly competitive with Iridium, IMHO.) |
