William - I share some of your sentiments regarding excessive exuberance [or pessessism;] however, many people are also prisoners of the 1 Q wonder.
Ok, to step back a bit, you are quite right that APM is in a unique situation [see my 1st post of the day to this threa.]
If you and I can think of APM downside, I am sure many people too. I mean, I don't know about you, but I am not that smart, not a tech and not a financial guy, so if I can think of it, it is hard for the people doing investment for a living not to see it. Also, as you point out, APM has already provided guidance for this Q. So it is accounted for. Ok, if it is worse than anticipated, then it is another thing; however, the opposite is equally true. What I am saying is that absolutism doesn't work here. Otherwise, people would ve stop buying the AOL and MSFT of the world. Otherwise, noone would want to invest in cyclical stocks when they are out of season. I don't mean they are justified. Ultimately, to me, the stock market is about human drama, it is about fairness, about greed, about steadfastedness, about immediate gratification, about betting against the odds.
rgds Bosco |
