SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : TNCR, the MOST Undervalued Semi-Equipment Stock
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Silicon Master who wrote ()3/16/1996 6:14:00 PM
From: dong yin   of 362
 
I have trouble understanding the logic analysts (and seemingly most investors) used to predict semi equipment companies (such as TNCR, KLAC, AMAT).
The facts that I gleaned from the media seems to be that (1) chips are in over-supply for probably the entire first half of 1996. (2) There may be some cancellation or push-outs of equipment orders. (3) All epuipment companies had a big backlog of orders as of last Q. (about $ 170 million for TNCR with equipment B2B at >1.2). (4) There seems to be a consensus that chip demand will go up later this year, especially with the demand for 16Mb chips that Window 95 etc. need..
In this case, why can't TNCR and others shuffle their order backlog to keep afloat with moderat growth for Q2 (and meet earning expectations). Chip companies will have to expect the demand up-turn and expand facilities before its too late. The orders coming in later in the year may be just in time to keep TNCR busy.
If this logic is correct, then the conclusions are (1) the current glut on chips, although hurting earning of MU and the likes, should not affect equipment makers. Keep in mind that none of AMAT, TNCR and KLAC have had a sequentially lower earning for a long time. (2) All the analysts who follow each other to downgrade equipment makers are idiots. (3) It is a good buying opportunity now if you can hold 1-2 Qs. Although the short-term prices do not always follow fundamentals, the long term market does.
Or alternatively, the analysts noticed something that I missed. Please let me know if this is the case.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News