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Strategies & Market Trends : BFT: Will the tulip craze ever break down?

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To: David Leith who wrote (153)3/24/1998 9:35:00 PM
From: put2rich  Read Replies (1) of 650
 
David,
Just some inputs from reading your thoughtful insight, since I have a large stake in seeing it down (at least to low 20s soon).

1/ The adv. of a large chain is easier to hook young people into the expensive 2+ yrs contract, since young people move more often.

2/ Most gyms are crowded only between 5PM until 9PM. Most unemployed / poor people hardly afford the due nor are willing to join any club.

3/ I guess the cost of building lease, utilities, ads are relatively large compared to dues.

4/ Don't know why but salesmen even in non-Bally gyms try to sell you contracts with variable costs (like used car biz) - bigger commissions since base salary sucks, orders from management? Of course it seems BFIT is the worst in this used-car biz.

You are right that it is scarry that if they have positive cash flow then they can hype higher. So far the performance has not been not better than last year while the price rose 5-6 times. If the economy is good real estate leases and wages cost more, if there is recession then memberships fall. In LA/ORANGE COUNTY areas the competition is tough since there are other chains, I don't know about other regions. Just hope that BFIT face tough competition from small gyms as well as from other chain expansion.
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