Paul has noted and asked:
"Townsend's answers were vague. What does the thread make of this? I'm left thinking (hoping) that SMU is counting on much improved revenues on the 16G side late in the year, and that they are counting on a significant ramp up of ITS and ITTR with the announcement of new contracts though Delphi. They are afraid to make promises so are keeping their projections modest, but are counting on some big news later this year. What do you all think?"
Well Paul, I do believe I sort of agree with you. Sixty to Seventy cents would be a "heroic" outcome, in my view, particularly since the first quarter should at best be breakeven, and the second quarter won't get the entire benefit from the San Diego plant consolidation.
Having said that, for the next 3-4 months at least, the price of Simula stock will be more closely aligned with the probability or actual announcement of additional ITS orders. If we get *one* that includes shipments in the latter part of 1999, the stock will trade north of 20. If there are two, add another five points. Three or more? Good grief, I don't think I will be able to stand the prosperity.
It appears to this writer that the company is counting on cleaning up its business operations to reach the better numbers. We will see if they can perform on schedule. Unfortunately, most investors aren't likely to give the management the benefit of the doubt following the last two quarters. SMU is now a "show me" stock.
Have a good evening. |
