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Technology Stocks : RealNetworks (NASDAQ:RNWK)

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To: Joseph Colombo who wrote (328)3/25/1998 3:27:00 AM
From: Brian E  Read Replies (1) of 5843
 
Wow! What a great day! Only wish that volume was a little bit higher, but you can't have it all. We seem to be capitalizing on the "internet craze", as many net stocks moved nicely today.

<<The only reason that I got out was because I believe a correction is likely in the next 6 weeks or so. I'm not a doomsayer. I am an optimist . I just think the tech's (and now the Internet's)will take a rest this time of year like they always do. And these type companies are just air. Someday they will be something, but right now we are buying the future.>>

I agree that internet stocks, as a group, are being traded at a ridiculous level right now. Anybody who IPO's with a "Networks", or "Communications", or "Solutions" in their name seems to take off in the months following their offering. However, I feel that investors will begin to take a more selective look at internet stocks, not sell them off completely. The dogs will soon be sold off and the winners will continue to prosper. But I don't feel that all net stocks will "correct" themselves in the next few months, as you suggest (barring a market crash). Don't get me wrong; there are several internet stocks that are way overbought and are great shorts right now. Back to the subject, I feel that RNWK is still in a great position, even if my scenario takes place, as they dominate the streaming media market and will grow as the internet becomes an even more integral part of daily life.

Granted, RNWK is difficult to analyze on the basis of fundamentals. With profits not expected for a year or so, traditional measures aren't applicable here and we must rely on projecting and discounting future revenue streams. However, I am betting (as is everyone else who is long RNWK) that RNWK will succeed in the future.

<<5 years from now, RNWK will be worth 10 times what it is now, and will have split 3 times. I think we know that.>>

I sure hope so. When I first bought in back at 14 3/4, I was looking for 25 sometime in the next few months. However, as I gain more and more faith in RNWK, I may now be in for the long haul.

Brian
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