Joe, take a look at some long term monthly charts for the broader market indexes, such as the oex, ndx, spx, djia, etc. How many months over the past few years have been down? Buying puts on these has been like playing Russian roulette, not only because of the bull trend, but also due to sector rotation which prevents the broader market from falling too often or too much. I learned once, the hard way.
If playing index puts, my opinion is to stay sector specific and hope the one you pick stays weak for awhile. I've always thought the best bet is to look for weak stocks. Probably, the index traders here will have the opposite opinion.
Of course, having said that, I now have to go cover my shorts today because even the worst of the worst tech garbage will be bought now that it is considered ok to have no profits. |
