Hi, Richard. I am not a geologist, but I am quite versed in statistics, so I will try to answer your question.
1)We are dealing with a large area and a large volume of material
2)Gold is usually not distributed evenly
3)The characteristics of the area/volume are also variable in terms of their mineral content
4)In order to assess proven reserves , you must have essays that are taken at intervals close enough to assume geological continuity between them
In a homogeneous mass, few essays widely spaced would do the job. But, in a case like this one, 1000 essays aimed at estimating proven resrves could only cover a small portion of the property because they will have to be tightly packed in an area that is small relative to the overall property size. Since they cover a small area, you will have good estimates of what lies in that small area because your estimates will be fairly accurate on concentration for that area (your samples are dense enough to cover all the varying concentrations present), but it will say nothing about the rest of the property. So, the proven reserve figure will reflect only that part of the property and will be relatively small.
Therefore, I would agree with Mr. Metals that proven reserves will not be spectacular at first. As the property is developed and more money is invested in further sampling, we will get more and more data on the rest of the property and the estimate of proven reserves will vary accordingly.
Michel |
