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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash
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To: MythMan who wrote (2439)3/25/1998 10:50:00 AM
From: Mike M2  Read Replies (5) of 5676
 
To any student of mkt history there should be no doubt that this mkt WILL COLLAPSE at some point the downside risk is so high one must wonder is the risk worth it to try to capture the last dollar. There are those who argue that the Fed won't hike because they don't want to be blamed for a crash which makes sense however at this point it should be obvious to the FED that to do nothing is to continue to condone one of the most reckless periods of speculation in history which at some point will collapse regardless of Fed policy. The question they must ask do we want severe decline from 9000 or a global collapse at Dow 10000, 12000, 15000 ? To those that say a rate hike is a precondition for a collapse look at SEA those bubbles burst WITHOUT a rate hike. While there is no proof that the FED has intervened during severe declines,if they have, it should be obvious that such actions only result in greater excesses. Intervention is a good policy to prevent a severe crash but the Fed should allow mkt participants to feel some pain in order to calm the speculation in the mkt. The Japanese have not been successful in stimulating their mkt and their economy after seven years someday the US will be in a similar situation. I think we are already at the point of no return but wherever that point is we will get there if the FED sits back and odes nothing. I see it as a choice between some pain now or much more later. Just wanted to spread a little optimism -g- Mike
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