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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion
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To: ThirdEye who wrote (10401)3/25/1998 11:51:00 AM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell  Read Replies (2) of 13949
 
Taoman wrote: To imply that tool vendors are doomed because time is so short is somewhat misleading, I think.

Yes, it is somewhat misleading for the reasons you mentioned. However, this is the Y2K industry perception and this affects stock prices.

ACLY and DEC are true partners and together should rake in the lion's share of the DEC vax market. IAIC and CA should do the same for the CA family of tools. DEC and CA have muscle. The difference here is that ACLY has proven it can turn a profit and IAIC has not.

PTUS does have some high-profile alliances like CSC and IBM. However, PTUS is a generic COBOL tool and therefore they don't enjoy the niche that ACLY and IAIC have. SEEC is in the same boat.

To illustrate my point, say you and I form Taoman-Mitchell Y2K Partners. Then we go knock on GM's door and say "Hi, we're Taoman and Jeff and we're Powered by Peritus!" I doubt we'd get too far. Perhaps if we knocked on some local doors we'd do OK, but probably not anything of any great size. But what about helping our client package the code; what about being able to do regression testing on it; what about if our licensed tool has a bug or needs to be modified? Then there's the proverbial "what if you get hit by a bus"?

Yes, of course I feel Y2K is a major problem and there will be plenty of work for everyone. However, I also feel a responsibility to pass on what I hear, good or bad, if only just to force myself to be objective.

- Jeff
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