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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 199.01-1.6%3:10 PM EST
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To: Jan Crawley who wrote (40982)3/25/1998 2:17:00 PM
From: gbh  Read Replies (2) of 61433
 
Jan, your analysis make sense to me. I just think any significant move above $41 any time in 98 will require some extraordinary event. Like a positive earnings surprise, big sales announcement, etc. As far as buyouts go, I think those people still looking to an LU buyout are off base. With the Livingston announcement of the PM4 recently, there doesn't appear to be any room for half of ASND's business in LU. LU would be better off with a pure ATM company like NN or FORE, which could be had cheaper anyway. Also, BAY even makes more sense at this point because of its broader product line and larger sales force.

For ASND the choice of suitors is diminishing. A merger of equals with BAY is possible but wouldn't benefit ASND shareholders much (might even drop ASND in value). I once thought CPQ was likely but their not as serious about networking as they once purported to be, and they will be focussed on getting their main business straight for awhile.

My most likely buyer of ASND at this point (which I stated here awhile back) is Intel. Intel already has close to a $1B networking business that pretty much covers the LAN with low to midrange hubs and switches and NICs. IMO they will eventually move to the WAN, and currently their is no overlap at all with the current INTC product line. Also, ASND would not drag the mighty INTC earnings in any way.

What do you think?
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