Intel: Doesn't need to cut prices. They could triple prices if they wanted, cause no matter what, AMD/Cyrix/etc. can't hope to make enough CPUs to meet more than 20% of demand.
Sal, I have to respectfully state I think you're totally wrong there. Semiconductor production isn't this black art. (Well it's a little bit of a black art). There's some lead time in building the fab lines, but it's not like building a nuclear power plant or something. Plus, there's always IBM in the background, they know as much about semiconductor production as anybody. Medium/long term, nothing stays production bound. Intel could triple prices, and AMD/ Cyrix/ IDT/ IBM/ whoever would either increase production, or do their own gouging. If the others chose to hold the line on prices and grab market share, Intel wouldn't look very good in a couple years.
Long term, I'd say Intel's still got some problems. PC prices aren't going to go back up. The only way the old pricing structure will get restored is if NT5, when it finally comes in, is such a pig that it needs all the CPU you can give it, but is so compelling you have to have it anyway. I can't exactly see that happening in the mass market, but who knows? Maybe everybody will really want to talk to their computers. Upscale is another story, of course.
I am impressed, though, at what Pentium II motherboards cost. I hadn't looked at them in a long time, since the original wave came in at $400+ or whatever, but now LX chipset boards are only $100 or so, about the same as a decent socket7. Where the competition has a chance is if they can come through with the 100mhz socket7 chipsets. Via's supposed to be shipping one, I don't know. There's certainly plenty of room to screw up, and let Intel reestablish that all important proprietary lock.
Celeron is pretty funny, even though I don't make fun of Intel in general. I was going to rag Reggie about it, but it's hardly worth the effort. The strange thing is that according to Intel's roadmap, the PII 233 is only 6 months behind in hitting the Celeron's $150 price point. Sheesh, what a waste of time.
Cheers, Dan. |
