<< You don't get it..... it is turning in favor of the shorts >>
I heard that at 60.
<< Can't happen that way now >>
Can't? Awfully confident. That's ok, I'm confident that YHOO goes higher the way you are convinced it goes lower.
<< AMZN still has a decisive favor to the longs with 28% short >>
Yes, AMZN is a good buy too. But only because of the supply demand. I recall saying on this thread that AMZN had better "squeezability" characteristics a few weeks ago. I don't like their fundamentals as well as YHOO's. YHOO earns money now and AMZN doesn't earn $ until late 1999. I have never been to Amazon.com. I went to YHOO's site probably 20 times today.
<< But Yahoo longs, on the other hand, would have a great deal of difficulty trying to squeeze up another 10 or 20 points. >>
Why? The short interest is just as high as it was for the last squeeze. The float hasn't increased that much to offset that. The market is in a mania now and it wasn't quite that way the last time around. Also, the higher YHOO goes the greater potential for a huge squeeze. Some who were short at say, 60, might have held on through the last squeeze to 90. They might give up this time when YHOO announces a 3 for 1 split and breaks 100. Anyway, the point I am trying to make is the short interest is essentially the same as when it was at 60 but YHOO is 30 points higher. What does that tell you? Tells me that either the short interest turned over a lot or institutions accumulated a lot of shares. Either way short covering wasn't as big a part of the move as believed, or more shorts just piled on. Anyway I was in chat rooms today and people were hopping all over YHOO, saying that this was some kind of reversal day for the market and it topped out. Shorts are just piling on and the only way they will win is if they hold out for the big drop in the market because you aren't going to hear any bad news from YHOO for a long time.
<< Not enough shorts out there compared to the longs to get it done. >>
Like I said, YHOO climbed 30 points and we have just as much if not more short as before. Hugely bullish!
<< But with the short interest not really expanding anymore and the float increasing dramatically, we are finally in a position where further squeezes aren't as possible >>
Good rationalization. A stock split and a break of 100 might change that. Shorts are definitely more scared than the longs. If YHOO went up 30 points and short interest stayed the same, imagine where it would go if the short interest dropped to 2 million. 120? 150? All it takes when shorts are in a fragile condition like this is a stock split or some huge teaming agreement with somebody to send the stock higher. Imagine if YHOO said it was going to charge for their service. Probably up 12 like AOL! Everybody loves YHOO and hates AOL. If YHOO said they were going to charge $5/month for their service but you got it free with an internet account I would switch from AOL in a heartbeat. I will probably switch here soon anyway.
<< Rarely will you see a stock with 15% or less squeezed very far and usually only if there is very positive news... >>
Ok, 15% gives me a multiplier of 6.66 right? Multiply 6.66 times the short interest which is 4,632,724 and I come up with 30.85 million.
Is that the figure you are using for the float? 31 million? Sounds kind of high. |
