"..Competition Created By LMDS Auction should be Inconsequential to
WinStar (from CSFB Governali's report of Feb)
As we expected, the advent of the LMDS auctions, an auction of licenses in the 28 to 31 GHz band of spectrum, appears to be raising a higher level of consciousness toward spectrum in the 20-38 GHz range.
Generally speaking, we believe that the auctions will have little to no impact on WinStar. In our view there is no spectrum shortage - the
government has seen to that. And as a result the availability of spectrum should not be viewed as an important barrier to entry into any radio-based telecom business. The barriers to entry involve the process of building a business. Since WinStar is ahead of any other wireless CLEC operation in this process of building a business, and is years ahead of potential new CLECs using LMDS, we don't view this auction as competitively significant.
On February 6, the U.S. Appeals Court in DC ruled that the LMDS auctions will go forward on February 18, under the FCC's original guidelines that bar incumbent local carriers from buying spectrum in-region. This decision further supports our belief that the auctions should be fairly inconsequential to WinStar as it prevents incumbent LECs from using wireless to block the entry of new competition..."
from Message 3649940
Also the following (as well as other of Governali's conservative and well-reasoned analysis that Steven posted) is worth reviewing:
Message 3649946
<..How does wireless bandwidth compare to fiber ?..>
I think a lot of what WCII's 38Ghz provides (depending on bandwidth) is ~155Mbps. This is the equivalent of an OC-3 ("fiber-optical cable") which is also 155Mbps. OC-1 is about 51Mbps, I've seen some numbers equating 1 Ghz of spectrum (in the 28Ghz range) to be approx 1Gbps. (I think what I saw was a equation of each 100Mhz "channel" to 100Mbps) I don't know if this is accurate, or how bandwidth exactly relates to tx rate, especially at different frequencies. I hope Bernard will weigh in to enlighten us, as I have wondered of this myself.
Of course, it's important to remember that when we are comparing fiber to wireless, we need to compare lower capacity LOCALLY laid fiber (NOT high capacity backbone fiber) to wireless bandwidth. Fact is, there is still not much local fiber out yet. I don't know what Teleport is laying, but I'd be surprised if it was larger than OC-3.
A lot of BACKBONE is still OC-3. OC-12 is ~622Mbps. OC-48 is ~1.25GBps. OC-96 is ~2.5Gbps and OC-192 is ~5Gbps. I don't think there is much 96 currently laid, and even less 192. Also, if DWDM is used, an increase of anywhere from 16 times to 80 times this base capacity is achievable. |
