Reg, you may be missing the point of the NC, which isn't to compete
with PCs as a replacement (despite hype to the contrary) but which
is to offer a lower-cost and above all *simpler* device for specialized
purposes. I see two main markets for the NC:
1) Businesses looking to replace terminals in applications such as
order taking, etc. Here, the zero-admin feature is the compelling
reason to buy. From where I sit business customers desparately
want solutions to high-cost PC-app maintenance. They don't want
something that makes the admin problem easier or prettier -- they
want the admin problem to simply go away, and that's what the NC
promises them.
2) Home users who want an info-age communication device. I have
three major communication devices in my home, a telephone, a
television with VCR, and a stereo. These are very specialized
"information appliances", and each is well-suited to the tasks it
performs. Is there a market for an info-age communication device
that let's me get e-mail, roam the internet, etc.? I suspect so.
Naturally, anyone who has other applications such as spreadsheets,
word processing, tax programs, etc., will need to have a PC in any
case. Thus, in case (1) an accountant probably has a PC to run
Excel, and uses software to access networked applications, whilst
droves of order entry operators run NCs. In case (2), it's quite
possible that some home users will have both devices ("Hey, junior,
get off the NC, will you, I need to get some stock quotes.") just as
they now have phones, TVs, *and* computers (and game machines,
etc, eh?).
'Course, even if I'm right, this doesn't mean INTC can't make a few
bucks selling NCs or CPUs for NCs, and this doesn't mean that MSFT
can't sell "Windows NC" or some such. Want a real crazy thought?
In 10 years your TV could be running some version of "Windows TV". |
