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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy?

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To: Peter Goss who wrote (3053)3/26/1998 7:19:00 AM
From: Linda Kaplan  Read Replies (2) of 7041
 
Peter,

The stock gapped up, and moved even higher by day end. It's typical when there's a gap up for some profit taking to occur mid-day. The stock was up 1-3/4, actually 7.82% on the day. That's quite a big rise. I really can't see how you can make anything negative out of that, as an indicator that the market doesn't have faith in the company. I think that the patent approval did improve faith in the company and that there was also a rise in the stock price prior to the approval. A lot of people knew the approval was coming and bought more stock based on it. That's what Dauntless and Claud were hinting about. So the move based on this patent approval probably started in the low 20's, and that makes it a very big move -- probably a bigger move than it deserves, in my opinion.

I don't think it was very nice of Dauntless and Claud to not tell everyone in advance all the things they knew were happening, but there's no law they have to. I'll just ride in someone else's car. :-)

Personally, it's my view that while people made a big deal on the board about the fact that ZONA wouldn't get a patent, and those people were dead wrong, I don't think the patent means a hill of beans as far as FDA approval goes. How much efficacy or safety has to be proven for a patent? Or does it just have to be a formulation that is slightly different from any other that was patented?

There is no evidence that I've seen yet that Vasomax is efficacious, significantly more efficacious than a placebo or that it's safe, or is likely to be FDA approved.

I think it certainly hurt the shorts' credibility that they made a big deal about the company not getting the patent, and that their taking a stance on that probably has currently added to people being overly optimistic about the drugs' future. People are thinking like Brad Anderson is, that if the shorts were wrong about the patent, they'll be wrong about FDA approval. I think that's an illogical step and that the stock is being overly inflated on the basis of that thinking. I don't personally think there's much correlation between getting a patent and getting FDA approval.

If anyone has figures that show otherwise, I'd be interested in seeing them.

Linda
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