Thermo Tech Technologies (TTRIF) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Thermo Tech Technologies (TTRIF)

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To: Lawrence Burg who wrote (3768)	3/26/1998 11:48:00 AM
From: DDS-OMS	Read Replies (4) of 6467

Larry, Accumulation vs Distribution does show a significant divergence in that it is showing good accumulation while the price is falling. However this is only one indicator that's positive arrayed against virtually all other indicators that are negative. The AD divergence has happened before when the stock was obviously under distribution while the indicator said otherwise: Sep-Nov 95 price fell from $3.68 to $1.43 and AD flat to slightly pos. Second time (not as good an example) was June to Oct 96 (price fell from $3.00 to 0.31). Only in the last month as the price was falling from $1 to .31 did AD finally go down significantly. So, at least in TTRIF's case, AD does not seem to be valid while there is a Reg S or Reg D distribution going on. The trend line says it all--as long as the price is inexorably melting away--wait. Let it put in a definite bottom before buying. IR says the Reg D is almost over? Let the price prove it. Lastly, yes, I still own a lot of TTRIF and really would like to see a reversal in the price--and it will happen as soon as this distribution is over. We seem to be putting in a floor at 1 1/8--but a little too early to tell. The stock seemed to be basing at 1 1/8 from mid Aug-end of Sept 96, and then it fell over a cliff during Oct--hitting .31 on Oct 28th. Bottom fishing can be painful---or profitable if you guess the right way---to me, bottom fishing is too much of a crap shoot. One may give up a little profit waiting for a clear reversal--but you also may avoid a huge decline. TTRIF may be terribly oversold, it may be very undervalued, it may be a "screaming buy" as one would say---but with a Reg S or Reg D hanging over it---NOTHING else matters in determining price until that overhanging supply is gone. Solely from looking at a price chart--no TA indicators--my CONJECTURE is that Reg D selling started in late November--40 days after the deal was made--and continued until just before the USF announcement (so there was a plateau for a week prior to that announcement). They sold heavily into that rally, and have been relentlessly selling ever since. The difference between private placement and Reg S or D??? PP are investors and most will hold their shares---Reg S or Reg D NEVER hold shares for an investment---they always sell as soon as possible--and the issuing company always can be counted on to say ""this time it's different, these are "investors" and won't sell"". And I've got a bridge in Brooklyn.... This too will pass. I hope! Regards, Gary

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