Gregg,
off topic
your posts a few days ago triggered some soul searching. What type of investor am I now?
First of all, I am a believer of the theory that the overall market is the most influential factor in investing. In other words, I don't think I am smart enough to find the few winners if the market overall is in a bear trend.
Looking forward, I see nothing but dark clouds with the storm most likely hitting in the 3-5 yr horizon. The biggest reason for my bearishness is the over valued US dollar. By default, the USD has become the global currency. When the EU comes on the market next year and as the Asian countries stabilize, the demand for USD is going to drop like a rock.
The US is the biggest debtor nation in the world. Every man woman and child owes about $20,000 right now. Personal debt is also at ridiculous levels, when compared to other developed countries in the world. This is a time bomb with a random clock on it. As an example, not that it will happen soon, the Japanese can boycott US treasuries for a few months. Just imagine the chaos that action can create.
As the US market heads to exuberant levels (just my opinion), some type of a correction is imminent. It may be a huge spike or it may be a slow process. Just like Asia during the last few qtrs, there were a lot of paper wealth that simply vanished. Countries like Japan, Korea and HK/China are strong savers. Though unpleasant, the general population has the ability to ride it out. As an example, in HK, with the drop in real estate prices, how come there are no massive foreclosures? That is because the maximum loan is 70% of value and the average loan to value is far below. Does the US economy (investors) have the strength to survive a dn market relatively unscathed? I agree with what you said, regarding how many modern investors who claim to be long term and yet they jump up and down on every tick. This is the herd that is being driven up now and they will be the same herd that ends up, as all herds do, in the slaughter house. I saw this mentality during my entire California see-saw real estate career and have no reason to believe stock investors will behave otherwise.
I can go on and on but Maurice must be doubled over right now, laughing at how I succumb to the NZ style of sherry induced rambling.
I guess I conclude that long term investment is not for me. Time to redo my analysis and formulate a strategy that is consistent with long term outlook.
Ramsey |
