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Technology Stocks : Ultratech Stepper
UTEK 30.230.0%Jun 5 5:00 PM EST
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To: RobZ who wrote (2275)3/26/1998 3:05:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (2) of 3696
 
Rob: While negative earnings surprises may be discouraging would they be all that surprising? I don't think so. The short position in UTEK certainly tells us to expect the worst.

Moreover, for fun let's call UTEK a DD company just for a moment. Look at QNTM. They preannounce and the stock trades up. Look at KMAG: it preannounces last night big time and trades down a point and change this morning and is fighting back as I write. Suggests to me one of two scenarios: (1) all the sellers have left; or (2) the underlying strength of this bull market is supporting these stocks. I think it is a combination of the two with a preference for the former. UTEK would seem to fit this mold. But for now there will always be discouraged <g> and impatient investors selling UTEK. Who can blame them if their investment time horizon is Friday?

I think it is significant that on low volume days means drifting down prices and on relative high volume days the stock closes higher without any real net change in the number of shorts. I see this as bullish technically and I think the technicals and the shorts position has overshadowed any analysis of UTEK on a fundamental basis (P/S, P/B).

There comes a time in these companies when you can write down the earnings estimates all you want and the price does not move hardly at all. That means to me that we are at bottom or near it price wise. But this doesn't mean these companies are going to turn up on a dime. Your risk at this level is not so much price as it is time IMHO.
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