Bill (CR) --
Much as I've enjoyed your posts here and on the ZITL thread, I think you may be wrong on TAVA.
Whether or not "one company can solve all Y2K embedded system problems," they've convinced a pretty blue-chip client list that they at least better run some pilots to see the extent of the problems. For what it's worth, I've talked with the Y2K people at my firm (a major multinational), and they believe that embedded systems on factory floors may not be Y2K compliant and must be checked; this has been given to all of our vendors as an edict, as well as being used as an internal guidepost.
At this point, the issue of Y2K and embedded systems is getting an increasing amount of press attention, several major institutions (e.g., Dreyfus) are taking positions in TAVA, they're anticipating getting NMS listing, and they're continuing to announce new contracts. This is contributing to very strong momentum, making it a poor short at this time (in my view).
Longer term, I would agree with you that the company faces some significant issues. First of all, they need to figure out how to make money out of their increased business volume, something that's been fairly difficult for them in the past. Second, they have to convert Y2K customers to some kind of post-Y2K engagements, or else they shrink back to their 1997 size and, presumably, stock valuation. I think this is doable, but it's certainly not a sure thing. Despite this, I think the stock will likely continue to advance, at least through 1998.
Ironically, I first bought into TAVA (then TPRO) last fall when it was mentioned disparagingly on Roger's 1997 thread. I tried to see past the fanaticism on the TPRO thread, and thought the company might have some value as a consolidation play. The Y2K runup has been a pleasant surprise, as I have a 100% profit in about six months.
Regards,
CMason |
