You know, I'm not so sure their is a disagreement between jtech, Brian, and others. Ya'll get hung up a lot in time sense, IMO. We got traders (short-timers), midways, and long termers, and its not always clear from what perspective a particular post is coming from. If jtech now says he expects 100/share by 2000, he's in line with many contributors. And his scenario about lower to 28 or worse shorter term is eminently plausible, but who knows?
A few thoughts, representing my best case scenario (which I am hoping for, of course!).
The downturn lasts another 6-9 months max, which clears out the excess capacity as stated by Dauphin(sp?), the SGS seer. Amat uses this breather to better prepare all their new gear for the next 2-3 year uptick. AMAT's competitive strength in some cases is thier number one liability, a broad product base can spread resouces too thin. It is no mean feat to enter CMP, buy two companies, and continue to introduce new products into existing markets. Meanwhile, smaller competitores don't fare as well in downturns and are weakened somewhat. Also, after said breather, more customers have shrunk to .35 or below so their is replacement business to be had as well as pure capacity adds. This has been the mode in this industry forever.
Well, I hope it unfolds this way- if so, 100 in 2000 could be conservative. |
