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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: Hawk who wrote (17624)3/26/1998 11:07:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Read Replies (3) of 50167
 
Hawk-- just finished the second-
So internet is a buy servers are buy TXN is a buy within SOX-- contradictions are 20% goes for chip in a 800 $ box or 2000$- what is the percentage of domestic demand to corporate demand- what impact Windows 98 is going to have on present users? If domestic market is 30% and corporate 70% we have a pricing pressure on the 30% but PC as whole only consume 30% of chip makers supply so what we are actually talking about is that price pressures will be seen on 30% of 30% In my humble opinion may be that is already prized but lets keep this discussion open we cannot accept these reports on face value like ASEAN crisis exaggeration most of thse analyst's forcasts need to be taken with a pinch of salt-- they will talk the stocks down and then go long but Kurlak can play these games we can atleast see through what heis upto-- not impressed by his analogies.

I will like you to read that DELL margins in first report $ 250-400 for sellers of box. If selling units grows sharply may be we don't have much room on the downside on chips as cheaper Koreans chip makers would need to service their debts thru cash flow they don't have much room to undercut or create overcapacity or glut in such a case we may see some possibility of price appreciation and reduction in margins of box sellers. Dell even may not suffer as specialised servers and other internet related high ticket computers which constitute anyway 70% business my offset the loss of margins on 30% domestic PC sales.

The second is a very selective report not an outright condemnation to gallows perhaps again Kurlak is looking at 240 entry on chips but lets try hard that he pays a price to entry by taking SOX NWX DDX to where they belong. Everyone is looking at cheap entry similar to every one looking to G at 60 when I went long at 81 now 118.
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