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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)

LU 2.705

+1.7%

Dec 11 3:59 PM EST

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To: RavBruce who wrote (1789)	3/27/1998 1:20:00 AM
From: Thomas Klein	Read Replies (1) of 21876

Bruce: I stated that the estimated earnings growth rate (expected by the 29 analysts following the stock) was 20% (actually 20.8%). I then stated that, IMHO, the growth rate was "as conservative as Rush Limbaugh", meaning that it is most likely too low and should be higher. For example, net income in fiscal 1996 was $224M compared to $541M in fiscal 1997. This is a growth rate of 142%. Of course this growth rate is unsustainable, but it really shows that 20% is unrealistic. In about two or three years Lucent will probably be doing $541M a quarter. The earnings estimates for fiscal 1998 have been revised from $2.84 up to $3.11. The growth rate for upward earnings revisions is 10%!. Not too shabby! Time will tell... I'm not going to miss out on this one. TK

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