Jim,
Its like playing chess. As for the FED not doing anything, I think that is what is expected. Now if the weakness that occured this week was due to such fears, then such could be a valid point with the exception that it was not FED fears which is pushing the price of CRUDE up.
I may be wrong, but I feel that the rise in commodities is due more to the price of CRUDE rising than FED fears, with the exception of GOLD. As fuel goes up cost of transportation of commodities rises, etc.
I don't think anyone now is saying that there cannot be a technical pause, its just a matter of time. Not talking about a huge drop just a 2.5%-5% technical pause(200+ DOW points).
Due to the weakness this week, the short-term technicals are in the mid-range, which is the lowest they have been in a long time, so in this hot market its fair to say that technically there is room to the upside. On just time, if the market continues up, the overall market will be a sell again in 2-3 days(next TUE/WED). Keep in mind that it was a sell earlier this week and it did sell off, but only a small amount(3 down days for the DOW this week - the most since this rally started). My short-term technicals, just recently, has timed the weaknesses, but many will discount it since the dips were so small. It is telling me that we will be getting back to normal very soon, and that the rally is slowing down. We are still below last Friday's close in the DOW, but that may not last with the way the futures are running now. Even if we run up 100 points today and close there, we will only be 50 points higher than last Fridays close. Relatively speaking, that would be flat for the week for the DOW and would be the smallest increase on a weekly basis since this rally started.
Seeya |
