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Gold/Mining/Energy : Epic EAS.v (formerly Epic ERB.v and Safari SIR.v)
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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1718)3/27/1998 10:23:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar  Read Replies (2) of 3335
 
OFF Topic -- Euro -- Henry and CLK
Henry.....Thank You for those extremely important and remarkably clear
and insightful postings into the structure and political workings of europe.

If Successful:
This currency....if not immediately -- will eventually, after a period
of stabilization, alter the worlds perception of the dollar and the value
of our bonds. There are many reasons to pay attention to what is about
to happen and what sceniaros likely to evolve. Each will effect our dollar,
markets and economic futures.
They are:
1) Euro fails from political weakness and nationalistic overtones and/or
currency and economic instabilities
2) Successful intergration but remains a weak currency
3) Stronge currency and a significant player in the worlds markets
4) Powerful currency able to become the next power base as the international
currency of last resort and a powerful rival to the dollar.

Henry
I hope you caught the 2 recent articles by Robert Mundell in thr WSJ
Monday 24th and Tuesday 25th:
I quote
"The introduction of the euro will represent the most dramatic change in the
international monetary system since President Nixon took the dollar off
gold in 1971...the era of flexable exchange rates began."
"...the introduction of the euro may be even more important than the
dropping of the golden anchor....flexable exchange rates did not alter the
power configuration of the international monetary system....the dollar was
the dominant currency in the system. But the euro is likely to challenge
the position of the dollar. In that sense, the introduction of the euro may
be the most important event in the history of the international monetary
system since the dollar took over from the role of the pound as the dominant
currency."

"There will come a time when the pile up of international indebtedness
makes reliance on the dollar as the worlds only main currency untenable....But
the fact that the bulk of international reserves is held in dollars makes that
currency a sitting duck in a currency crisis. It is no accident that the dollar
fell to 79 yen in 1995 at the peak of the fallout from the Mexican crisis,
wreaking havoc with Japan's already distressed economy."

The work is excellant and brings to light much of the academic work that is in
oppostion to the idea of monitary union. Such moniterists as Milton Freidman,
Henry Kaufman, Martin Feldstein, and even a supply-sider Arthur Laffer.

The article ends with a recall of Churchill's dream to bring forth a
unified and prosperous europe free from the nationalistic quarrels that
have destroyed so many people. The EMU may be that catalyst for a
unified europe of free trade and travel.

EMU may also be the catalyst to feed the nationalistic irritations and
have just the opposite effect. An important experimentation about to
unfold....bringing us and the world again into some very unstable and
unchartered waters.

Thanks Again Henry and CLK for your postings
Chip
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