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Technology Stocks : Natural Microsystems [NMSS]

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To: Trader Dave who wrote (17)	3/27/1998 11:21:00 AM
From: V	Read Replies (3) of 308

Several rumors: >Big volume on monday caused by alex brown noting back end loaded quarter >and limited possibility of upside surprise. Took the "wind out of the stock" Quoting Dow Jones: " .... after a comment by an industry analyst about the company's upcoming first quarter was misinterpreted by his firm's sales force, one market source said." >Two rumors yesterday: Blair was noting or cautioning shortage of TI chips could >prevent growth - very scary - turns out to be denied by company. True or false I >don't know, but denied by company. Doubt the shortage of DSP chips from TXN. Moreover NMSS CFO has flatly denied the rumor. >Other rumor I think propagated by cowen (which doesn't cover NMSS) may have >been note that Dialogic (an IP telephony competitor) had shipped a few boards >that compete with fusion 2. It's kind of silly, everyone interested in IP telephony will >buy boards and software from NMSS, brooktrout, and Dialogic to test them. Dialogics DM3 IP Telephony boards are coming on strong. And pretty soon any technological edge of NMSS will be equalized. DLGC has more breadth of products and would be considered a better "strategic" partner by any service provider/carrier getting into CTI/IP Telephony. >The real question I have - given the importance of IP telephony transport ( I think >packet telephony will completely replace circuit telephony over the next 15 to 25 >years) Will NMSS' customers in this space ultimately move away from them as a >provider and try to do their own development since the technology is so >strategically important? the MOT, LU, NT , ERICY etc. will want to be the dominant vendor for carriers/service providers in this space too and will have to own VOIP technology. (LU already owns Rhetorex through Octel purchase. MOT bought into NSPK last week). Some may develop it inhouse or they may purchase it too. > I'm in - now I find out whether this should be held as a core holding. > TD Whether voice travels over an IP based LAN (at offices) or IP based PSTN or digital cable lines (at homes) two of the dominant providers of the infrastructure will be LU & CSCO in the US. Wouldn't those two make for better core holdings??

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