Re: SEEC
Last night I got the same thought about SEEC. I went to Edgar and tried to find a pattern. Yes, I did see one but was too chicken to post my conclusion. I don't like predicting a Y2K stock will go down, so I'll just let people more qualified than me to figure out any meaning.
The companies getting hit are the ones that have made their money on licensing their tools. PTUS, SEEC, ACLY, IAIC, and I believe VIAS to a degree fall in that category (if not, TEDennis will be sure to correct me.) Anyway, PTUS had a .11 EPS in Q4 on good licensing revenues and is now looking at .03. Yes, the Millennium deal has to be taken into account, but even without that such revenue is lacking.
SEEC had a .13 EPS for Q3 and are predicting the same for Q4 (their fiscal year ends 3/31). If most of that is still licensing revenue they may take a major hit. Here are the actual numbers:
REVENUES: Q2 Q3 Q4
Software license and maintenance fees $2,074,827 $1,937,310 $2,824,166
Professional services-product related 224,092 435,247 592,017
Professional services-other.......... 77,740 40,348 37,448
---------- --------- ----------
Total revenues.................... 2,376,659 2,412,905 3,453,631
As for ACLY, they are getting hammered, too. However, they have been known to pull a rabbit out of their hat and take a big jump. They also have a solid relationship with DEC that is, in effect, a second life for them. IAIC is the big question mark. VIAS has taken a beating but I think it's more because TEDennis owns a ton of shares (gg).
ALYD is absolutely not affected. They announced Q4 revenues of around 6.5M, up from 2.5M. They should grow at least 35% more during Q1. The official numbers due next Monday or Tuesday will give us a better idea about the expense side of things. Regardless, their whole model is different from the do-it-yourself tool vendors.
- Jeff |
