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Strategies & Market Trends : TA- Advanced GET
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To: Bruce A. Bowman who wrote (926)3/27/1998 4:18:00 PM
From: Gary Burton  Read Replies (1) of 1551
 
From a learning standpoint it is interesting to look at a weekly chart of MANU going back to 1994. As of last night, it showed a W4 with opb back to just below zero but a PTI of just 22. Yet the decline had remained above the blue line and the retrace of the W3 was still just under 50% at the low. The PTI on its own might have suggested caution when the W4 hit its low point back in Nov97 at 28.50 ( and suggesting to some that the W3 was going to be relabled as a strong C Wave)---- Today however, MANU hit a new W5 high up 70% off the W4 low point. The lesson may be that PTI on its own may not be appropriate and also that a" PTI below 35" scenario may simply mean that the odds are low of making a new high 'significantly' beyond the W3 top. It may say nothing about the odds of double topping or going only marginally beyond the W3 high. In this case of course a double topping would have resulted in a major % gain from the w4 low. So, the moral may be to a low PTI reading may say zilch about the odds of making a major % gain back up to the W3 top. In fact in this case, since the blue line contained the drop and the retrace of W3 was still below 50% one might have actually anticipated it regardless of the PTI number (which may speak only to the degree BEYOND the W3 top. anyway.
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